While female candidates have opportunities to pick up seats this November, some face challenging general election odds while others face stiff competition to win their party’s primary.
Florida, Wisconsin, and North Carolina are three of 18 states never to split their ticket by voting for a Democratic presidential nominee and a Republican U.S. Senate candidate in the same cycle.
If Brian Fitzpatrick wins his brother Mike’s 8th CD seat in Pennsylvania this fall he will join a fairly short list of U.S. Representatives who directly followed a brother in serving their congressional district.
Not only are Democrats losing gubernatorial elections at a rate not seen in 100+ years, but the party’s nominees are losing badly.
The potential 2016 matchup would be the first among sitting or former ex-U.S. Representatives from North Carolina in 98 years, while Shuler would be the first such Democrat to run for a Senate seat since 1972.
Only six defeated female U.S. Senate nominees have subsequently appeared on a general election ballot; no defeated female U.S. Senator has yet tried.
North Carolina has hosted the most competitive races for the U.S. Senate over the last quarter-century with Colorado, New Jersey, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota close behind.
States have split their ballot only 29 percent of the time in presidential and U.S. Senate elections over the last century; 6% in NC, 11% in WI and 16% in IL (key 2016 battlegrounds).
Nominees from the nation’s largest third party set records in 10 states last cycle for the largest support ever recorded in a U.S. Senate election.
Three fell in 2014 and more than half of all defeated U.S. Senators over the last 100 years have been in their first term; at least one first-term incumbent has lost reelection in 47 of the 51 election cycles during the direct election era.