Hagedorn vs Walz II and a Review of Minnesota’s 99 Congressional Rematch Elections

More than one in six U.S. House elections in Gopher State history have been rematches with the challenger winning 14 percent of the time

Jim Hagedorn was one of three Republicans to lose by single digits to Minnesota DFL U.S. Representatives last fall, and is the first to officially announce he wants a rematch in 2016.

Hagedorn fell 8.5 points shy of denying 1st CD Congressman Tim Walz a fifth term in the chamber in a nationally GOP-friendly cycle in which Republican winds did not blow quite as strongly in the Gopher State.

The Mankato-based Republican, a former Treasury Department legislative and public affairs director and Congressional Affairs Officer for the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, will attempt to win the GOP nomination and get another round in the political ring with Walz next year.

Second chances have been plentiful for Minnesota congressional candidates over the decades – but how often do they pay off for the challenger?

Smart Politics examined the nearly 600 general election contests for U.S. Representative in Minnesota history and found 99 involved rematches between major party or notable third party candidates, with challengers winning 14 percent of the time.

Overall, there have been 581 Minnesota U.S. House elections since statehood of which this analysis studies 574. (Excluded from this analysis were seven elections: five special elections following the death or resignation of incumbents, the state’s first contest for two at-large representatives seated in 1858, and the race for nine at-large seats in 1932 after the state could not agree to a redistricting map).

A total of 99 of these 574 congressional races have featured rematches between major party or notable third party nominees, or 17.2 percent of all contests.

Rematches have been even more commonplace over the last few decades.

Since 1980, more than one in five elections for Minnesota U.S. Representative have seen rematches between major party nominees: 29 of 144, or 20.1 percent.

By contrast, from 1950 to 1978, just 17 of the 126 elections were rematches, or 13.5 percent.

Rematches were particularly frequent in the state shortly before, during, and after the ascent of the Farmer-Labor Party.

From 1920 to 1948, more than one in four congressional elections were rematches: 34 of 132 contests during this 15-cycle stretch, or 25.8 percent of races to the nation’s lower legislative chamber.

Two current delegation members, of course, eventually benefited from persistently challenging their incumbent target after losing at the ballot box.

It took DFLer Collin Peterson and Republican John Kline three tries each before they vanquished their political opponents.

Peterson first tried to unseat four-term GOPer Arlen Stangeland in the 7th CD in 1984 but lost by 14.1 points and then fell short in his first rematch two years later in 1986 by just 121 votes.

In 1990, Peterson sought a third race and second rematch against Stangeland and defeated him by 7.1 points to deny the Republican an eighth term in D.C.

Kline, meanwhile, sought back-to-back rematches with DFLer Bill Luther after losing the 6th CD race in 1998 to the two-term incumbent by 4.0 points.

Kline lost by just 1.6 points in 2000 but after redistricting in 2002 easily defeated Luther by 11.1 points in the 2nd Congressional District.

All told, challengers seeking rematches have been victorious in 15 of 104 attempts across these 99 elections, or 14.4 percent.

(Note: There are more rematch attempts than congressional elections with rematches as a handful of cycles featured more than one pair of rematches).

While those numbers do not provide a great outlook for Hagedorn in 2016 against Walz, he can take some solace in the fact that four challengers have come back from bigger losses to win a rematch race than his 8.5-point defeat in 2014:

● 1906 (2nd CD): Democrat Winfield Hammond beat seven-term Republican James McCleary after losing to McCleary by 18.1 points in 1892
● 1938 (7th CD): Republican H. Carl Anderson beat five-term Farmer-Laborite Paul Kvale after losing by 16.9 points in 1936
● 1938 (8th CD): Republican and former Congressman William Pittenger defeated freshman Farmer-Laborite John Bernard after losing by 12.8 points in 1936
● 1944 (3rd CD): DFLer William Gallagher beat two-term Republican Richard Gale after losing by 30.9 points in a distant third place in 1942

The 14-year gap in the battle between Hammond and McCleary is the longest among the 104 congressional rematches in Minnesota history.

Two others saw a gap of at least a decade.

Democrat P.J. Russell challenged 6th CD Republican incumbent Harold Knutson in 1918 as well as 12 years later in 1930 – losing by more than 40 points each time.

Meanwhile, Democrat James Robertson lost to 5th CD Republican Walter Newton by 15 points in 1918 and then 35 points ten years later in 1928.

Five other rematches saw gaps of eight years, with the challenger losing each time:

● Republican Horace Strait over Greenback/Democrat Ignatius Donnelly (1876, 1884)
● Republican Frederick Stevens over Democrat John Gieske (1902, 1910)
● Republican Melvin Maas over Farmer-Laborite Howard Williams (1928, 1936)
● DFLer Jim Oberstar over Republican Jerry Shuster between their second and third matchups (1990, 1998)
● DFLer Collin Peterson over Republican Glen Menze (2000, 2008)

As mentioned above, both Representatives Peterson and Kline did not unseat their opponents until their third attempt (i.e. second rematch).

The record for the largest number of congressional candidate-on-candidate battles in the Gopher State belongs to the pairing of Republican Harold Knutson and John Knutsen, who ran under various labels in four matchups across a 14-year span to represent the state’s 6th CD.

Knutson won an open seat race in 1916 with Knutsen placing third with 7.5 percent as the Prohibition Party nominee.

In 1922, Knutsen was one of two independent challengers against the GOP incumbent in a three-candidate race and received 7.4 percent.

In 1928 and 1930, Knutsen was the Farmer-Labor nominee and lost by north of 30 points each cycle.

Fourteen other notable candidate pairs have matched up three times:

● 1892, 1906, 1908 (2nd CD): Democrat Winfield Hammond vs. Republican James McCleary
● 1920, 1922, 1926 (8th CD): Republican Oscar Larson vs. Democrat/Farmer-Laborite William Carss
● 1926, 1928, 1930 (9th CD): Republican Conrad Selvig vs. Farmer-Laborite Knud Wefald
● 1928, 1936, 1938 (4th CD): Republican Melvin Maas vs. Farmer-Laborite Howard Williams
● 1934, 1936, 1938 (9th CD): Farmer-Laborite Richard Buckler vs. Democrat Martin Brandon
● 1936, 1938, 1940 (8th CD): Republican William Pittenger vs. Farmer-Laborite John Bernard
● 1936, 1938, 1940 (3rd CD): Farmer-Laborite Henry Teigan vs. Democrat Martin Hogan
● 1964, 1966, 1968 (1st CD): Republican Al Quie vs. DFLer George Daley
● 1978, 1980, 1982 (7th CD): Republican Arlan Stangeland vs. DFLer Gene Wenstrom
● 1984, 1986, 1990 (7th CD): Republican Arlan Stangeland vs. DFLer Collin Peterson
● 1988, 1990, 1998 (8th CD): DFLer Jim Oberstar vs. Republican Jerry Shuster
● 1988, 1990, 1992 (4th CD): DFLer Bruce Vento vs. Republican Ian Maitland
● 1994, 1996, 1998 (4th CD): DFLer Bruce Vento vs. Republican Dennis Newinski
● 1998, 2000, 2002 (6th, 2nd CDs): DFLer Bill Luther vs. Republican John Kline

99 Minnesota U.S. House Rematch Elections

Year	Dist	Winner	Party	Loser	Party	Previous
1859	AL	Cyrus Aldrich	REP	James Cavanaugh (I)	DEM	1857
1880	2	Horace Strait	REP	Henry Poehler (I)	DEM	1878
1884	1	Milo White (I)	REP	Adolph Biermann	DEM	1882
1884	3	Horace Strait (I)	REP	Ignatious Donnelly	DEM	1876
1894	2	James McCleary (I)	REP	Lionel Long	PEOP	1892
1894	3	Joel Heatwole	REP	Osee Hall (I)	DEM	1892
1898	5	Loren Fletcher (I)	REP	Thomas Caton	DEM	1892
1898	6	R. Page Morris (I)	REP	Charles Towne	DEM-PEOP	1896
1900	7	Frank Eddy (I)	REP	Haldor Boen (I)	REFER	1894
1906	2	Winfield Hammond	DEM	James McCleary (I)	REP	1892
1908	1	James Tawney (I)	REP	Andrew French	DEM	1906
1908	2	Winfield Hammond (I)	DEM	James McCleary	REP	1892, 1906
1910	4	Frederick Stevens (I)	REP	John Gieske	DEM	1902
1910	5	Frank Nye (I)	REP	Thomas Dwyer	DEM	1908
1912	2	Winfield Hammond (I)	DEM	Franklin Ellsworth	REP	1910
1912	6	Charles Lindbergh (I)	REP	Andrew Gilkinson	DEM	1908
1914	9	Halvor Steenerson (I)	REP	M.A. Brattland	SOC	1912
1916	10	Thomas Schall (I)	PROG	Lowell Jepson	REP	1914
1918	7	Andrew Volstead (I)	REP	Engebret Lobeck	NAT’L	1916
1920	4	Oscar Keller (I)	REP	Carl Cummins	IND	1919
1920	10	Thomas Schall (I)	REP	John Soltis	F-L	1916
1920	10	Thomas Schall (I)	REP	Henry Finlayson	DEM	1918
1922	6	Harold Knutson (I)	REP	John Knutsen	IND	1916
1922	7	Ole Kvale	IND	Andrew Volstead (I)	REP	1920
1922	8	Oscar Larson (I)	REP	William Carss	DEM	1920
1926	1	Allen Furlow (I)	REP	L.B. Hanna	DEM	1924
1926	5	Walter Newton (I)	REP	Albert Bastis	F-L	1924
1926	8	William Carss	F-L	Oscar Larson (I)	REP	1920, 1922
1928	3	August Andresen (I)	REP	Charles Kolars	DEM	1926
1928	5	Walter Newton (I)	REP	James Robertson	DEM	1918
1928	6	Harold Knutson (I)	REP	John Knutsen	F-L	1916, 1922
1928	9	Conrad Selvig (I)	REP	Knud Wefald	F-L	1926
1930	6	Harold Knutson (I)	REP	P.J. Russell	DEM	1918
1930	6	Harold Knutson (I)	REP	John Knutsen	F-L	1916, 1922, 1928
1930	8	William Pittenger (I)	REP	William Carss	F-L	1928
1930	9	Conrad Selvig (I)	REP	Knud Wefald	F-L	1926, 1928
1936	4	Melvin Maas (I)	REP	Howard Williams	F-L	1928
1936	9	Richard Buckler (I)	F-L	Martin Brandon	DEM	1934
1938	3	Henry Teigan (I)	F-L	Martin Hogan	DEM	1936
1938	4	Melvin Maas (I)	REP	Arthur Doherty	DEM	1936
1938	4	Melvin Maas (I)	REP	Howard Williams	F-L	1928, 1936
1938	7	H. Carl Andersen	REP	Paul Kvale (I)	F-L	1936
1938	8	William Pittenger	REP	John Bernard (I)	F-L	1936
1938	9	Richard Buckler (I)	F-L	Ole Sageng	REP	1934
1938	9	Richard Buckler (I)	F-L	Martin Brandon	DEM	1934, 1936
1940	2	Joseph O’Hara	REP	Elmer Ryan (I)	DEM	1938
1940	3	John Alexander (I)	REP	Henry Teigan	F-L	1938
1940	3	John Alexander (I)	REP	Martin Hogan	DEM	1938
1940	3	Henry Teigan	F-L	Martin Hogan	DEM	1936, 1938
1940	5	Oscar Youngdahl (I)	REP	Dewey Johnson	F-L	1938
1940	7	H. Carl Andersen (I)	REP	Jennings O’Connor	DEM	1938
1940	8	William Pittenger (I)	REP	John Bernard	F-L	1936, 1938
1942	6	Harold Knutson (I)	REP	E. Thomas O’Brien	DEM	1940
1944	3	William Gallagher	DEM	Richard Gale (I)	REP	1942
1944	6	Harold Knutson (I)	REP	Harry O’Brien	DFL	1942
1946	2	Joseph O’Hara (I)	REP	L.J. Kilbride	DFL	1944
1948	1	August Andresen (I)	REP	Karl Rolvaag	DFL	1946
1948	3	Roy Wier	DFL	George MacKinnon (I)	REP	1946
1950	5	Walter Judd (I)	REP	Marcella Killen	DFL	1948
1950	8	John Blatnik (I)	DFL	William Pittenger	REP	1946
1952	7	H. Carl Andersen (I)	REP	James Youngdale	DFL	1948
1952	9	Harold Hagen (I)	REP	Curtiss Olson	DFL	1950
1954	2	Joseph O’Hara (I)	REP	Harry Sieben	DFL	1950
1954	3	Roy Wier (I)	DFL	Edward Willow	REP	1952
1954	8	John Blatnik (I)	DFL	Ernie Orchard	REP	1952
1956	9	Coya Knutson (I)	DFL	Harold Hagen	REP	1954
1958	1	Al Quie (I)	REP	Eugene Foley	DFL	1958 (s)
1958	5	Walter Judd (I)	REP	Joseph Robbie	DFL	1956
1960	9	Odin Langen (I)	REP	Coya Knutson	DFL	1958
1962	2	Ancher Nelson (I)	REP	Conrad Hammar	DFL	1958
1962	8	John Blatnik (I)	DFL	Jerry Ketola	REP	1960
1964	7	Alec Olson (I)	DFL	Robert Odegard	REP	1962
1966	1	Al Quie (I)	REP	George Daley	DFL	1964
1968	1	Al Quie (I)	REP	George Daley	DFL	1964, 1966
1970	7	Bob Bergland	DFL	Odin Langen (I)	REP	1968
1980	4	Bruce Vento (I)	DFL	John Berg	REP	1978
1980	7	Arlan Stangeland (I)	REP	Gene Wenstrom	DFL	1978
1982	3	Bill Frenzel (I)	REP	Joel Saliterman	DFL	1980
1982	6	Gerry Sikorski	DFL	Arlen Erdahl (I)	REP	1978
1982	7	Arlan Stangeland (I)	REP	Gene Wenstrom	DFL	1978, 1980
1986	7	Arlan Stangeland (I)	REP	Collin Peterson	DFL	1984
1986	8	James Obsertar (I)	DFL	Dave Rued	REP	1984
1990	4	Bruce Vento (I)	DFL	Ian Maitland	REP	1988
1990	5	Martin Sabo (I)	DFL	Raymond Gilbertson	REP	1988
1990	7	Collin Peterson	DFL	Arlan Stangeland (I)	REP	1984, 1986
1990	8	James Obsertar (I)	DFL	Jerry Shuster	REP	1988
1992	4	Bruce Vento (I)	DFL	Ian Maitland	REP	1988, 1990
1994	7	Collin Peterson (I)	DFL	Bernie Omann	REP	1992
1994	8	James Obsertar (I)	DFL	Phil Herwig	REP	1992
1996	2	David Minge (I)	DFL	Gary Revier	REP	1994
1996	4	Bruce Vento (I)	DFL	Dennis Newinski	REP	1994
1996	6	Bill Luther (I)	DFL	Tad Jude	REP	1994
1998	3	Jim Ramstad (I)	REP	Stan Leino	DFL	1996
1998	4	Bruce Vento (I)	DFL	Dennis Newinski	REP	1994, 1996
1998	8	James Obsertar (I)	DFL	Jerry Shuster	REP	1988, 1990
2000	1	Gil Gutknecht (I)	REP	Mary Rieder	DFL	1996
2000	5	Martin Sabo (I)	DFL	Frank Taylor	REP	1998
2000	6	Bill Luther (I)	DFL	John Kline	REP	1998
2002	2	John Kline	REP	Bill Luther (I)	DFL	1998, 2000
2002	8	James Obsertar (I)	DFL	Bob Lemen	REP	2000
2004	5	Martin Sabo (I)	DFL	Daniel Mathias	REP	2002
2008	7	Collin Peterson (I)	DFL	Glen Menze	REP	2000
2012	7	Collin Peterson (I)	DFL	Lee Byberg	REP	2010
2014	2	John Kline (I)	REP	Mike Obermueller	DFL	2012

Party codes: REP = Republican, DEM = Democrat, DFL = Democratic-Farmer-Labor, F-L = Farmer-Labor, PEOP = People’s, IND = Independent, PROB = Prohibition, NAT’L = National, SOC = Socialist, REFER = Referendum. Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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