No state has held more special elections to the chamber since the year the U.S. entered WW II, and only four states have held them at a higher rate.
GOP U.S. Senators who faced bona fide renomination battles over the last four cycles averaged 74 years of age, were 28 years older than their opponent, and had served 24+ years in the chamber; not so in 2018.
Only 1 of 49 U.S. Representatives are seeking to flip gubernatorial seats in states carried by their party’s presidential nominee last year.
Only one of the 73 Republican U.S. House members from Trump states with Democratic US Senators on the 2018 ballot has mounted a challenge.
Just seven states have had an average victory margin of less than 10 points over the last three decades with North Carolina leading the pack.
The 10 Trump states with Democratic incumbents have voted for senate nominees from the opposing party of the sitting president 62 percent of the time over the last 50 years.
Heller is the only Republican among the 15 U.S. Senators who serve states in which their party holds a minority of U.S. House seats; a dozen (including Heller) are up for reelection in 2018.
You can win over some of the people some of the time, but Murkowski has not won over a majority of Alaskan voters any of the time.
History suggests the nation is overdue for a record-setting U.S. Senate nail-biter and there are plenty of states that could serve up extremely close contests on November 8th.
Republicans would break a party record if eight U.S. Senate nominees are elected from states voting Democratic for president.