Only five of 55 U.S. Senate partisan winning streaks of eight in a row have been halted in the subsequent contest during direct election era.
GOP U.S. Senators who faced bona fide renomination battles over the last four cycles averaged 74 years of age, were 28 years older than their opponent, and had served 24+ years in the chamber; not so in 2018.
Only one of the 73 Republican U.S. House members from Trump states with Democratic US Senators on the 2018 ballot has mounted a challenge.
The 10 Trump states with Democratic incumbents have voted for senate nominees from the opposing party of the sitting president 62 percent of the time over the last 50 years.
At least one first-term incumbent has been defeated in 48 of the 52 election cycles during the direct election era.
Heller is the only Republican among the 15 U.S. Senators who serve states in which their party holds a minority of U.S. House seats; a dozen (including Heller) are up for reelection in 2018.
History suggests the nation is overdue for a record-setting U.S. Senate nail-biter and there are plenty of states that could serve up extremely close contests on November 8th.
If a handful of toss-up races all end up in the Democratic column, the party will have its strongest showing in races for governor since its formation nearly 190 years ago.
New Hampshire has both the largest (179 in a row) and longest (since 1856) streaks of fielding U.S. House nominees from both major parties; Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also have streaks north of 100.
Over the last century, Indiana voters have never backed a presidential nominee without also supporting that party’s gubernatorial or U.S. Senate nominee.