Only 1 of 49 U.S. Representatives are seeking to flip gubernatorial seats in states carried by their party’s presidential nominee last year.
Nearly five-dozen U.S. House races in 2016 involve the same two major party candidates from 2014 including one matchup in Missouri with nominees squaring off for the sixth consecutive cycle.
Since 1972, 12 of the 27 Republican U.S. Senators to lose during presidential election cycles did so while the GOP White House nominee carried their state.
After the 2016 election, 10 states could have a Republican governor and two Democratic U.S. Senators; only one state currently has the reverse.
Unlike their GOP counterparts, Democrats have few states that have consistently backed the party’s eventual nominee over the last 40+ years.
Five states (plus two yet to vote) will keep their perfect records intact for backing the eventual Republican nominee in the modern primary era; two states lost their bellwether status this cycle.
The last time 20 or more Republican U.S. Senators ran for reelection was in 1926 – the party lost seven seats that cycle including six freshmen.
While female candidates have opportunities to pick up seats this November, some face challenging general election odds while others face stiff competition to win their party’s primary.
Just three states have elected at least one Republican to the House of Representatives in every cycle since the founding of the party in 1854; eight other states have streaks dating back to the 19th Century.
If the nation’s six most competitive seats flip in 2016, the upper legislative chamber will tie its mark for the lowest number of states with split delegations in the direct election era.