Mark Pryor Could Face Historic Defeat in 2014

No incumbent U.S. Senator has lost a general election race coming off a victory in which he did not face a major party opponent

When word came out that buzzworthy freshman GOP Arkansas U.S. Representative Tom Cotton would indeed be launching his U.S. Senate candidacy this week, the Republican Party got a little more optimistic about not only winning Democrat Mark Pryor’s seat, but also taking back the chamber.

A lot of things have to go right for the GOP to net the six seats necessary to pry back control of the Senate, and picking off the two-term Democrat’s seat in the increasingly red state of Arkansas is critical to that mission.

But although Pryor, the son of former Arkansas governor and three-term U.S. Senator David Pryor, may seem ripe for defeat in 2014, Representative Cotton is taking a pathway that few have found successful.

As Smart Politics reported in March, Cotton’s candidacy faces challenging odds on paper: only 17 House freshmen have been elected to the Senate over the last century, and just two during the last 40 years (Minnesota’s Rod Grams in 1994 and Kansas’ Sam Brownback in 1996).

That is what Cotton has going against him.

On top of that, there is this bit of history going for Pryor.

The Democratic Senator is coming off a 2008 campaign in which the Republican Party did not even field a candidate and Pryor was victorious by 59.1 points over the Green Party’s Rebekah Kennedy.

So what are the odds Pryor could come back six years later after facing no major party competition and then lose the 2014 general election?

It’s never happened to an incumbent before.

A Smart Politics analysis finds that no incumbent U.S. Senator has lost a general election race coming off a victory in which he did not face a major party opponent.

(Note: Included in this study are independents or third party candidates who faced only one major party incumbent in their victory).

Since states began electing U.S. Senators via popular vote a century ago, there have been 142 contests in which only one major party candidate appeared on the ballot.

A total of 88 of these Senators ran in the subsequent general election and all 88 were reelected.

Of the remaining Senators, 23 died in office, 17 opted not to run for reelection, two resigned during their term, and nine lost their party’s nomination: Democrats Thomas Hardwick (Georgia, 1918), Nathaniel Dial (South Carolina, 1924), Joseph Ransdell (Louisiana, 1930), Coleman Blease (South Carolina, 1930), Edwin Broussard (Louisiana, 1932), Hubert Stephens (Mississippi, 1934), Wall Doxey (Mississippi, 1942), Absolom Robertson (Virginia, 1966), and Republican Dick Lugar (Indiana, 2012).

(The remaining three Senators on this list still await their fate: Arkansas’s Pryor (in 2014), South Dakota Republican John Thune (in 2016), and independent Bernie Sanders of Vermont (in 2018)).

Not only have these incumbent Senators enjoyed an unblemished general election record coming off a victory without a major party opponent, but very few follow-up races have even been close.

Among incumbents like Pryor who did not face major party competition in the previous cycle, the average victory margin in the subsequent cycle for these U.S. Senators has been 72.0 points, with just three decided by less than 10 points:

· In 1962, five-term Alabama Democrat J. Lister Hill narrowly defeated Republican James Martin by just 1.7 points – after not facing a Republican challenger during his previous two victories in 1950 and 1956.

· In 1996, three-term Virginia Republican John Warner beat Democrat Mark Warner by 5.1 points after facing only an independent candidate in 1990 – Nancy Spannaus, who failed to get 20 percent of the vote. (The latter Warner would later win the former’s open seat in the Election of 2008).

· In 2006, two-term Arizona Republican Jon Kyl followed up his 71.5-point blow-out victory over a Democrat-less field six years prior with a 9.8-point win over Jim Pederson.

No other race has been decided by less than 18 points among these 88 contests.

Of course, most of the races with only one major party candidate on the ballot over the years have taken place in the South, where Democrats enjoyed effective one-party rule for decades.

Still, the average victory margin by such Senate incumbents coming off a race without such a challenger has been nearly as obscene over the last 50 years (50.3 points) as the first 50 years (79.6 points).

As previously mentioned, Cotton would be the first freshman U.S. Representative in 18 years to win a Senate seat, although he wouldn’t be the first in the history of his state.

Of the 11 U.S. Representatives who successfully won a U.S. Senate seat in Arkansas since statehood, Democrat J. William Fulbright did so as a freshman – defeating three-term Senator Hattie Caraway to nab his party’s nomination in 1944 and subsequently win five general elections.

Fate of U.S. Senate Incumbents in Cycle After Facing No Major Party Opposition*

State	Senator	Party	Cycle 1	Cycle 2	Result	MoV
OR	Fred Mulkey	REP	1906 (s)	N/A	Did not run
GA	Thomas Hardwick	DEM	1914 (s)	1918	Lost nomination
AL	Frank White	DEM	1914 (s)	N/A	Did not run
FL	Duncan Fletcher	DEM	1914	1920	Won	43.5
SC	Cotton Ed Smith	DEM	1914	1920	Won	100.0
LA	Robert Broussard	DEM	1914	N/A	Died
VA	Claude Swanson	DEM	1916	1922	Won	45.4
MS	John Sharp Williams	DEM	1916	N/A	Did not run
LA	Edward Gay	DEM	1918 (s)	N/A	Did not run
OR	Fred Mulkey	REP	1918 (s)	N/A	Did not run
SC	William Pollock	DEM	1918 (s)	N/A	Did not run
AR	Joseph Robinson	DEM	1918	1924	Won	47.0
LA	Joseph Ransdell	DEM	1918	1924	Won	100.0
MS	Pat Harrison	DEM	1918	1924	Won	100.0
SC	Nathaniel Dial	DEM	1918	1924	Lost nomination
AL	John Bankhead	DEM	1918	N/A	Died
MN	Knute Nelson	REP	1918	N/A	Died
VA	Thomas Martin	DEM	1918	N/A	Died
LA	Edwin Broussard	DEM	1920	1926	Won	100.0
SC	Cotton Ed Smith	DEM	1920	1926	Won	100.0
GA	Thomas Watson	DEM	1920	N/A	Died
GA	Walter George	DEM	1922 (s)	1926	Won	100.0
PA	David Reed	REP	1922 (s)	1928	Won	30.4
GA	William Harris	DEM	1924	1930	Won	100.0
LA	Joseph Ransdell	DEM	1924	1930	Lost nomination
MS	Pat Harrison	DEM	1924	1930	Won	100.0
SC	Coleman Blease	DEM	1924	1930	Lost nomination
WI	Robert La Follette, Jr.	REP	1925 (s)	1928	Won	74.6
ND	Gerald Nye	NPL	1926 (s)	1926	Won	57.4
IA	David Stewart	REP	1926 (s)	N/A	Did not run
GA	Walter George	DEM	1926	1932	Won	85.6
LA	Edwin Broussard	DEM	1926	1932	Lost nomination
SC	Cotton Ed Smith	DEM	1926	1932	Won	96.3
MN	Henrik Shipstead	F-L	1928	1934	Won	20.7
MS	Hubert Stephens	DEM	1928	1934	Lost nomination
WI	Robert La Follette, Jr.	REP	1928	1934	Won	23.5
VA	Claude Swanson	DEM	1928	N/A	Did not run
AL	John Bankhead II	DEM	1930	1936	Won	74.8
AR	Joseph Robinson	DEM	1930	1936	Won	69.0
MS	Pat Harrison	DEM	1930	1936	Won	100.0
SC	James Byrnes	DEM	1930	1936	Won	97.7
VA	Carter Glass	DEM	1930	1936	Won	87.0
GA	William Harris	DEM	1930	N/A	Died
LA	Huey Long	DEM	1930	N/A	Died
AR	Hattie Caraway	DEM	1932 (s)	1932	Won	79.4
GA	Richard Russell	DEM	1932 (s)	1936	Won	100.0
LA	John Overton	DEM	1932	1938	Won	99.7
FL	Duncan Fletcher	DEM	1932	N/A	Died
TN	Nathan Bachman	DEM	1934 (s)	N/A	Died
CA	Hiram Johnson	REP	1934	1940	Won	69.1
MS	Theodore Bilbo	DEM	1934	1940	Won	100.0
FL	Park Trammell	DEM	1934	N/A	Died
FL	Claude Pepper	DEM	1936 (s)	1938	Won	64.9
LA	Rose McConnell Long	DEM	1936 (s)	N/A	Did not run
MN	Guy Howard	REP	1936 (s)	N/A	Did not run
GA	Richard Russell	DEM	1936	1942	Won	93.9
LA	Allen Ellender	DEM	1936	1942	Won	100.0
MN	Ernest Lundeen	F-L	1936	N/A	Died
MS	Pat Harrison	DEM	1936	N/A	Died
AR	John Miller	IND/DEM	1937 (s)	N/A	Resigned
AL	J. Lister Hill	DEM	1938 (s)	1938	Won	72.8
GA	Walter George	DEM	1938	1944	Won	100.0
LA	John Overton	DEM	1938	1944	Won	100.0
MS	Theodore Bilbo	DEM	1940	1946	Won	100.0
VA	Harry Byrd, Sr.	DEM	1940	1946	Won	35.9
CA	Hiram Johnson	REP	1940	N/A	Died
FL	Charles Andrews	DEM	1940	N/A	Died
MS	Wall Doxey	DEM	1941 (s)	1942	Lost nomination
SC	Burnet Maybank	DEM	1941 (s)	1942	Won	100.0
AR	John McClellan	DEM	1942	1948	Won	86.4
GA	Richard Russell	DEM	1942	1948	Won	99.8
LA	Allen Ellender	DEM	1942	1948	Won	100.0
MS	James Eastland	DEM	1942	1948	Won	100.0
SC	Burnet Maybank	DEM	1942	1948	Won	92.9
AL	John Bankhead II	DEM	1942	N/A	Died
VA	Carter Glass	DEM	1942	N/A	Died
GA	Walter George	DEM	1944	1950	Won	100.0
LA	John Overton	DEM	1944	N/A	Died
AL	John Sparkman	DEM	1946 (s)	1948	Won	68.0
MS	Theodore Bilbo	DEM	1946	N/A	Died
NC	J. Melville Broughton	DEM	1948 (s)	N/A	Died
AR	John McClellan	DEM	1948	1954	Won	100.0
GA	Richard Russell	DEM	1948	1954	Won	100.0
LA	Allen Ellender	DEM	1948	1954	Won	100.0
MS	James Eastland	DEM	1948	1954	Won	91.1
AL	J. Lister Hill	DEM	1950	1956	Won	100.0
AR	William Fulbright	DEM	1950	1956	Won	66.0
SC	Olin Johnston	DEM	1950	1956	Won	64.5
GA	Walter George	DEM	1950	N/A	Did not run
FL	Spessard Holland	DEM	1952	1958	Won	42.5
MS	John Stennis	DEM	1952	1958	Won	100.0
VA	Harry Byrd, Sr.	DEM	1952	1958	Won	43.1
CA	William Knowland	REP	1952	N/A	Did not run
TX	M. Price Daniel	DEM	1952	N/A	Resigned
NC	Samuel Ervin	DEM	1954 (s)	1956	Won	33.1
NC	W. Kerr Scott	DEM	1954 (s)	N/A	Died
SC	Strom Thurmond	IND DEM	1954	1956	Won	100.0
AR	John McClellan	DEM	1954	1960	Won	99.9
GA	Richard Russell	DEM	1954	1960	Won	99.9
LA	Allen Ellender	DEM	1954	1960	Won	59.5
VA	Absolom Robertson	DEM	1954	1960	Won	67.2
SC	Strom Thurmond	DEM	1956 (s)	1960	Won	100.0
AL	J. Lister Hill	DEM	1956	1962	Won	1.7
FL	George Smathers	DEM	1956	1962	Won	40.1
GA	Herman Palmadge	DEM	1956	1962	Won	100.0
LA	Russell Long	DEM	1956	1962	Won	50.9
MS	John Stennis	DEM	1958	1964	Won	100.0
VA	Harry Byrd, Sr.	DEM	1958	1964	Won	44.8
AR	John McClellan	DEM	1960	1966	Won	100.0
GA	Richard Russell	DEM	1960	1966	Won	100.0
SC	Strom Thurmond	DEM	1960	1966	Won	24.4
VA	Absolom Robertson	DEM	1960	1966	Lost nomination
GA	Herman Palmadge	DEM	1962	1968	Won	55.0
MS	John Stennis	DEM	1964	1970	Won	76.8
AR	John McClellan	DEM	1966	1972	Won	21.8
GA	Richard Russell	DEM	1966	N/A	Died
LA	Allen Ellender	DEM	1966	N/A	Died
LA	Russell Long	DEM	1968	1974	Won	100.0
VT	George Aiken	REP	1968	N/A	Did not run
MS	John Stennis	DEM	1970	1976	Won	100.0
HI	Daniel Inouye	DEM	1974	1980	Won	59.5
LA	Russell Long	DEM	1974	1980	Won	18.9
AL	James Allen	DEM	1974	N/A	Died
MS	John Stennis	DEM	1976	1982	Won	28.4
WV	Robert Byrd	DEM	1976	1982	Won	37.7
VA	Harry Byrd, Jr.	IND	1976	N/A	Did not run
AL	Howard Heflin	DEM	1978	1984	Won	26.2
LA	J. Bennett Johnson	DEM	1978	1984	Won	76.9
MS	Thad Cochran	REP	1990	1996	Won	43.6
VA	John Warner	REP	1990	1996	Won	5.1
AR	David Pryor	DEM	1990	N/A	Did not run
GA	Sam Nunn	DEM	1990	N/A	Did not run
AZ	Jon Kyl	REP	2000	2006	Won	9.8
KS	Pat Roberts	REP	2002	2008	Won	23.6
MA	John Kerry	DEM	2002	2008	Won	34.9
MS	Thad Cochran	REP	2002	2008	Won	22.9
VA	John Warr	REP	2002	N/A	Did not run
IN	Dick Lugar	REP	2006	2012	Lost nomination
VT	Bernie Sanders	IND	2006	2012	Won	46.1
AR	Mark Pryor	DEM	2008	2014	TBD
SD	John Thune	REP	2010	2016	TBD
VT	Bernie Sanders	IND	2012	2018	TBD

* Included in this study are independents or third party candidates who faced only one major party incumbent in their victory. Cycle 1 indicates an election in which only one major party was on the ballot. Cycle 2 indicates the subsequent election for that seat. Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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