Will Obama or Romney Break Any Records Tuesday?

Obama set the all-time Democratic presidential statewide victory margin marks in Delaware and Vermont (and D.C.) four years ago

One of the story lines running over the past few weeks has been how Mitt Romney is running even or perhaps ahead of Barack Obama in the popular vote, but probably trailing in the electoral vote.

The reason for that discrepancy is as follows: Romney is expected to rack up larger victory margins in states won by John McCain in 2008, while Obama is expected to give back only a few states he won last cycle but also record narrower victories in the remainder of the traditional blue states.

In some states, the president has a lot of room to give.

A Smart Politics review of 180 years of presidential election data finds that Barack Obama set the record for the largest Democratic victory margin in Delaware, Vermont, and the District of Columbia in 2008.

Obama carried Vermont by 37.0 points over McCain four years ago, besting the previous Democratic mark of 32.6 points set by Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

Although skewing Democratic in big numbers across the last few cycles, Vermont has the distinction of holding the all-time U.S. record of voting for a Republican presidential candidate in 27 consecutive cycles, from 1856 to 1960.

Obama won Delaware in 2008 by 25.0 points, which also eclipsed LBJ’s mark from 1964 of 22.2 points.

Obama won the District of Columbia by 85.9 points in 2008. The District’s Top 5 largest victory margins have occurred progressively over the last five cycles with Clinton winning by 75.6 points in 1992 and 75.9 points in 1996, Gore winning by 76.2 points in 2000, and Kerry winning by 79.8 points in 2004.

Overall, the largest Democratic margins of victory across the 50 states and D.C. are held by eight different nominees, with 39 of these records held by Andrew Jackson, FDR, and LBJ:

· Andrew Jackson notched the best Democratic mark in 10 states – one from his 1828 run (Pennsylvania) and nine from his reelection victory in 1832 (Alabama, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia).

· Martin Van Buren owns the biggest Democratic victory in New Hampshire (1836).

· Horatio Seymour claims Kentucky and Maryland (both in 1868).

· Grover Cleveland holds the mark in Florida (1892).

· William Jennings Bryan set Democratic records in the then newly-minted western states of Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, and Utah (all in 1896).

· Franklin Roosevelt owns the best marks in nine states from 1932 (Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Texas) and another eight states from 1936 (Arizona, California, Minnesota, Oregon, South Carolina, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming).

· Lyndon Johnson set the record in a dozen states during his 1964 blowout victory over Barry Goldwater: Alaska, Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, and West Virginia.

Largest Democratic Presidential Nominee Margin of Victory by State, 1828-2008

State	DEM Nominee	Year	MoV
Alabama	Andrew Jackson	1832	99.9
Alaska	Lyndon Johnson	1964	31.8
Arizona	Franklin Roosevelt	1936	42.9
Arkansas	Franklin Roosevelt	1932	73.1
California	Franklin Roosevelt	1936	35.3
Colorado	William Jennings Bryan	1896	71.1
Connecticut	Lyndon Johnson	1964	35.7
D.C.	Barack Obama	2008	85.9
Delaware	Barack Obama	2008	25.0
Florida	Grover Cleveland	1892	71.4
Georgia	Andrew Jackson	1832	100.0
Hawaii	Lyndon Johnson	1964	57.5
Idaho	William Jennings Bryan	1896	56.8
Illinois	Andrew Jackson	1832	36.6
Indiana	Andrew Jackson	1832	34.2
Iowa	Lyndon Johnson	1964	24.0
Kansas	Franklin Roosevelt	1932	9.4
Kentucky	Horatio Seymour	1868	49.1
Louisiana	Franklin Roosevelt	1932	85.8
Maine	Lyndon Johnson	1964	37.7
Maryland	Horatio Seymour	1868	34.4
Massachusetts	Lyndon Johnson	1964	52.7
Michigan	Lyndon Johnson	1964	33.6
Minnesota	Franklin Roosevelt	1936	30.8
Mississippi	Andrew Jackson	1832	100.0
Missouri	Andrew Jackson	1832	100.0
Montana	William Jennings Bryan	1896	60.2
Nebraska	Franklin Roosevelt	1932	27.7
Nevada	William Jennings Bryan	1896	62.4
New Hampshire	Martin Van Buren	1836	50.0
New Jersey	Lyndon Johnson	1964	31.8
New Mexico	Franklin Roosevelt	1932	27.0
New York	Lyndon Johnson	1964	37.3
North Carolina	Andrew Jackson	1832	69.5
North Dakota	Franklin Roosevelt	1932	41.6
Ohio	Lyndon Johnson	1964	25.9
Oklahoma	Franklin Roosevelt	1932	46.6
Oregon	Franklin Roosevelt	1936	34.8
Pennsylvania	Andrew Jackson	1828	33.3
Rhode Island	Lyndon Johnson	1964	61.7
South Carolina	Franklin Roosevelt	1936	97.2
South Dakota	Franklin Roosevelt	1932	29.2
Tennessee	Andrew Jackson	1832	90.8
Texas	Franklin Roosevelt	1932	76.7
Utah	William Jennings Bryan	1896	65.4
Vermont	Barack Obama	2008	37.0
Virginia	Andrew Jackson	1832	49.9
Washington	Franklin Roosevelt	1936	36.5
West Virginia	Lyndon Johnson	1964	35.9
Wisconsin	Franklin Roosevelt	1936	33.5
Wyoming	Franklin Roosevelt	1936	23.1

Table compiled by Smart Politics.

With Romney expected to run up the score in several red states on Tuesday, will the former Massachusetts governor get into the books with any records of his own?

Not likely.

The lowest all-time Republican margin of victory in a state Romney is guaranteed to carry on November 6th is Kentucky at 28.6 points in 1972, when Richard Nixon crushed George McGovern.

Even though the president is exceedingly unpopular in the deepest red states in the nation like Utah and Wyoming, Obama will likely not lose by more than the 52.2 points Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan in Utah in 1980 or the 42.3 points Reagan defeated Walter Mondale by in Wyoming in 1984.

Obama lost Utah and Wyoming by 28.0 and 32.2 points respectively in 2008 and is expected to fare worse in those western states this week.

Overall, 11 different GOP nominees hold the 50 individual state records for the largest margins of victory since the founding of the party in the mid-1850s:

· Abraham Lincoln in Kansas, Massachusetts, Missouri, and West Virginia in 1864.

· Ulysses Grant in Rhode Island and South Carolina in 1872.

· William McKinley in New Hampshire and Vermont in 1896.

· Teddy Roosevelt in Minnesota, Oregon, South Dakota, and Washington in 1904.

· Warren Harding in California, Illinois, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, and Wisconsin in 1920.

· Calvin Coolidge in Colorado, Connecticut, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania in 1924.

· Herbert Hoover in Delaware in 1928.

· Barry Goldwater in Mississippi in 1964.

· Richard Nixon in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia in 1972. (Nixon also owns the lowest margin of loss for a Republican in D.C. at -56.5 points that cycle. The GOP has never carried the District).

· Ronald Reagan in Nevada and Utah in 1980 and Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Nebraska, and Wyoming in 1984.

· George H.W. Bush in Arizona in 1988.

Goldwater’s 74.3-point victory in Mississippi marked the largest all-time GOP victory across 39 cycles since 1856.

Largest Republican Presidential Nominee Margin of Victory by State, 1856-2008

State	GOP Nominee	Year	MoV
Alabama	Richard Nixon	1972	46.9
Alaska	Ronald Reagan	1984	36.8
Arizona	George H.W. Bush	1988	33.9
Arkansas	Ronald Reagan	1984	38.1
California	Warren Harding	1920	41.9
Colorado	Calvin Coolidge	1924	35.0
Connecticut	Calvin Coolidge	1924	34.0
D.C.	(Richard Nixon)*	(1972)	-56.5
Delaware	Herbert Hoover	1928	30.4
Florida	Richard Nixon	1972	44.1
Georgia	Richard Nixon	1972	50.4
Hawaii	Richard Nixon	1972	25.0
Idaho	Ronald Reagan	1984	46.0
Illinois	Warren Harding	1920	42.3
Indiana	Richard Nixon	1972	32.8
Iowa	Warren Harding	1920	45.4
Kansas	Abraham Lincoln	1864	61.4
Kentucky	Richard Nixon	1972	28.6
Louisiana	Richard Nixon	1972	37.0
Maine	Calvin Coolidge	1924	50.2
Maryland	Richard Nixon	1972	23.9
Massachusetts	Abraham Lincoln	1864	44.5
Michigan	Calvin Coolidge	1924	62.2
Minnesota	Teddy Roosevelt	1904	55.1
Mississippi	Barry Goldwater	1964	74.3
Missouri	Abraham Lincoln	1864	39.4
Montana	Warren Harding	1920	29.1
Nebraska	Ronald Reagan	1984	41.7
Nevada	Ronald Reagan	1980	35.6
New Hampshire	William McKinley	1896	42.8
New Jersey	Warren Harding	1920	39.2
New Mexico	Richard Nixon	1972	24.5
New York	Warren Harding	1920	37.6
North Carolina	Richard Nixon	1972	40.6
North Dakota	Warren Harding	1920	59.6
Ohio	Calvin Coolidge	1924	34.6
Oklahoma	Richard Nixon	1972	49.7
Oregon	Teddy Roosevelt	1904	47.6
Pennsylvania	Calvin Coolidge	1924	46.3
Rhode Island	Ulysses Grant	1872	43.9
South Carolina	Ulysses Grant	1872	52.0
South Dakota	Teddy Roosevelt	1904	49.4
Tennessee	Richard Nixon	1972	38.0
Texas	Richard Nixon	1972	33.0
Utah	Ronald Reagan	1980	52.2
Vermont	William McKinley	1896	63.4
Virginia	Richard Nixon	1972	37.7
Washington	Teddy Roosevelt	1904	50.6
West Virginia	Abraham Lincoln	1864	36.5
Wisconsin	Warren Harding	1920	54.9
Wyoming	Ronald Reagan	1984	42.3

* Denotes the smallest margin of loss for a Republican nominee in the District of Columbia. Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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