All Eyes at the Top

A recent SurveyUSA poll of likely Minnesota voters unsurprisingly found a single-digit race on the top of November’s ballot (Obama up six points over Romney) and a blow-out just below (Amy Klobchuar up 24 on GOP challenger Kurt Bills). Such has often been the result over the 17 previous election cycles in the Gopher State since 1912 in which presidential and U.S. Senate contests align in the same cycle. The presidential contest has been more narrowly decided than the U.S. Senate race in 12 races (1912, 1916, 1928, 1940, 1948, 1952, 1960, 1972, 1976, 1984, 1988, 2000) and the senate race has been more competitive just five times (1924, 1936, 1964, 1996, 2008). These 17 presidential elections have been decided by an average of 10.6 points while the 17 U.S. Senate contests were decided by an average of 17.7 points.

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