Walker’s Odds: How Often Do Wisconsin Gubernatorial Incumbents Win Reelection?

Governors in the Badger State have kept their job in 34 of 46 contests since statehood, or 74 percent of the time

Although he is facing a recall election unlike any of his predecessors, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is currently polling with an ‘incumbent’s advantage’ – enjoying single digit leads over Democratic challenger Tom Barrett in all four public opinion polls released in the past two weeks.

Even putting aside Walker’s huge fundraising advantage that he has amassed to date, Barrett is attempting to accomplish something only one out of four Wisconsin gubernatorial challengers have succeeded in doing over the last 160+ years: unseat a sitting governor.

A Smart Politics review of Wisconsin gubernatorial election data finds that incumbents have been elected at a rate of 74 percent out of nearly four-dozen attempts in state history.

Incumbents have appeared on the general election ballot in Wisconsin 46 times across the 72 elections for governor that have been conducted since statehood.

Sitting governors have won 34 of these contests and lost just 12 times, for a 74 percent reelection rate.

One-term incumbents, like Walker, have had essentially the same rate of success – winning 23 contests and losing nine, or 72 percent.

(Note: This study only examines governors who ran for reelection and made it onto the general election ballot. Other governors have failed to win their party’s nomination, such as Walter Kohler, Sr. in 1930 to Philip La Follette).

Wisconsin governors seeking reelection won their first five attempts from the 1840s to the 1860s: Democrats Nelson Dewey (1849) and William Barstow (1855) and Republicans Alexander Randall (1859) and Lucius Fairchild (1867, 1869).

The first Wisconsin governor to lose a general election race was Republican Cadwallader Washburn in 1873.

Two years after winning the governorship in 1871 by 6.4 points over James Doolittle, Washburn became the first Republican to lose a governor’s race in the Badger State since 1855 with a 10.4-point loss to Democrat William Taylor.

Taylor would likewise lose as an incumbent in 1875 by 841 votes to GOPer Harrison Ludington.

Other governors who lost their general election matchups include:

· One-term Republican William Hoard in 1890.
· Two-term Democrat George Peck in 1894.
· One-term Democrat Albert Schmedeman in 1934.
· Two-term Progressive Philip La Follette in 1938. (La Follette had also previously served an interrupted term as governor as a Republican.)
· One-term Republican Julius Heil in 1942.
· One-term Republican Vernon Thompson in 1958.
· One-term Democrat John Reynolds in 1964.
· One-term Democrat Martin Schrieber in 1978.
· One-term Democrat Anthony Earl in 1986.
· One-term Republican Scott McCallum in 2002.

(Note: Shrieber and McCallum had been elected to the office of lieutenant governor and ascended into the governorship when Patrick Lucey and Tommy Thompson resigned respectively).

Despite this overall reelection success, Wisconsin governors have had a more difficult time keeping their job over the last 50 years compared to the century prior.

From statehood through the Election of 1956, incumbents won their general election matchup 79 percent of the time (26 of 33 contests), compared to 62 percent since 1958 (8 of 13 contests).

A recently released Smart Politics report found that gubernatorial challengers seeking a “rematch” with the governor who defeated them (a la Barrett vs. Walker this June) have won only two out of six elections in Wisconsin history.

Electoral Success of Wisconsin Gubernatorial Incumbents Since Statehood

Year	Governor	Party	Result	Percent	MoV/MoL
1849	Nelson Dewey	Democrat	Won	52.4	16.8
1855	William Barstow	Democrat	Won	50.1	0.2
1859	Alexander Randall	Republican	Won	53.2	6.6
1867	Lucius Fairchild	Republican	Won	51.7	3.4
1869	Lucius Fairchild	Republican	Won	53.1	6.3
1873	Cadwallader Washburn	Republican	Lost	44.8	-10.4
1875	William Taylor	Democrat	Lost	49.6	-0.5
1879	William Smith	Republican	Won	53.2	13.5
1884	Jeremiah Rusk	Republican	Won	51.0	6.0
1886	Jeremiah Rusk	Republican	Won	46.5	6.5
1890	William Hoard	Republican	Lost	42.7	-9.2
1892	George Peck	Democrat	Won	47.9	2.0
1894	George Peck	Democrat	Lost	37.9	-14.3
1898	Edward Scofield	Republican	Won	52.6	11.5
1902	Robert La Follette	Republican	Won	52.9	13.0
1904	Robert La Follette	Republican	Won	50.5	11.3
1906	James Davidson	Republican	Won	57.4	25.1
1908	James Davidson	Republican	Won	54.0	17.1
1912	Francis McGovern	Republican	Won	45.5	3.0
1916	Emanuel Philipp	Republican	Won	52.9	15.0
1918	Emanuel Philipp	Republican	Won	47.0	13.0
1922	James Blaine	Republican	Won	76.4	65.8
1924	James Blaine	Republican	Won	51.8	11.9
1934	Albert Schmedeman	Democrat	Lost	37.7	-1.4
1936	Philip La Follette	Progressive	Won	46.4	17.0
1938	Philip La Follette	Progressive	Lost	36.0	-19.4
1940	Julius Heil	Republican	Won	40.7	0.9
1942	Julius Heil	Republican	Lost	36.4	-13.2
1944	Walter Goodland	Republican	Won	52.8	12.2
1946	Walter Goodland	Republican	Won	59.8	20.7
1948	Oscar Rennebohm	Republican	Won	54.1	10.0
1952	Walter Kohler, Jr.	Republican	Won	62.5	25.2
1954	Walter Kohler, Jr.	Republican	Won	51.5	3.1
1958	Vernon Thompson	Republican	Lost	46.3	-7.3
1960	Gaylord Nelson	Democrat	Won	51.6	3.2
1964	John Reynolds	Democrat	Lost	49.4	-1.2
1966	Warren Knowles	Republican	Won	53.5	7.4
1968	Warren Knowles	Republican	Won	52.9	6.1
1974	Patrick Lucey	Democrat	Won	53.2	11.1
1978	Martin Schrieber	Democrat	Lost	44.9	-9.5
1986	Anthony Earl	Democrat	Lost	46.2	-6.5
1990	Tommy Thompson	Republican	Won	58.2	16.4
1994	Tommy Thompson	Republican	Won	67.2	36.3
1998	Tommy Thompson	Republican	Won	59.7	21.0
2002	Scott McCallum	Republican	Lost	41.4	-3.7
2006	Jim Doyle	Democrat	Won	52.7	7.4

Table compiled by Smart Politics with data from Wisconsin Blue Books.

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