Competitive GOP Primary in Wisconsin Spurs 91% Turnout Surge from 2008

The Romney-Santorum battle rivals the Stassen-MacArthur-Dewey contest in 1948 for the most competitive cycle in the primary’s 100-year history; voter turnout soars more than 90 percent from 2008

Believe it or not, Wisconsin lived up to the hype.

It may not have been apparent from the broadcast media coverage – where the first calls of Mitt Romney’s victory in Wisconsin came well inside of an hour – but the Badger State GOP presidential primary ended up not simply being the most competitive in the 100-year history of the contest, but also home to the second biggest surge in Republican turnout across the nation this cycle compared to four years ago.

Much like the previous primaries in the Midwestern battleground states of Michigan and Ohio, Mitt Romney edged Rick Santorum once again, this time by 7.2 points, 44.1 percent to 36.9 percent.

The 2012 primary was the state’s 26th such Republican contest dating back to its origins in 1912 and is one of only four in history to be decided by less than 10 points as well as one of four in which the winner carried the state with a plurality of the vote:

· In 1948, former Minnesota Governor Harold Stassen defeated Douglas MacArthur by a 5.4-point margin in the Badger State, 39.4 percent to 34.0 percent. Eventual GOP nominee Thomas Dewey was third with 25.2 percent.

· Four years later, in 1952, Ohio U.S. Senator Robert Taft was victorious over California Governor Earl Warren by 6.8 points by a 40.6 percent to 33.8 percent margin. Stassen came in third in a five-candidate field with 21.8 percent.

· In 1980, Ronald Reagan defeated George H.W. Bush by 9.8 points with 40.2 percent of the vote to 30.4 percent for his soon to be vice-presidential running mate. Illinois congressman John Anderson came in third with 27.4 percent.

However, unlike the 1948, 1952, and 1980 primaries – which were three-way races with all three candidates receiving at least 20 percent of the vote – the 2012 contest was a two-way battle between Romney and Santorum, making the margin particularly competitive.

Ron Paul finished a distant third with 11.2 percent while Newt Gingrich ended up in fourth place at 5.9 percent.

With plenty of ads and campaign stops from the major players, the highly anticipated Wisconsin primary boosted turnout significantly in the state compared to four years ago.

(The Badger State held its primary at approximately the same time on the primary calendar relative to other states in 2008 when it was the 36th contest, compared to #30 in 2012).

Wisconsin Republican primary voter turnout surged more than 91 percent in 2012 from 410,607 voters in 2008 to over 785,000 on Tuesday.

That marks the second largest cycle-to-cycle increase in Republican primary or caucus voting across the 31 states that have held contests so far this cycle.

While Mississippi technically recorded a bigger increase in turnout from 2008 at +99.4 percent, the Magnolia State was the 42nd state to vote that cycle, and did so only after all major challengers to John McCain had suspended their campaigns. The state was the 25th to vote this year.

Other states recording significant turnout increases in 2012 primaries and caucuses are Kansas at +52.8 percent, Vermont at +52.7 percent (though voting much earlier than in 2008), and South Carolina at +35.5 percent.

(There are no comparable cycle-to-cycle numbers available for Hawaii and Wyoming (which did not release raw caucus vote totals in 2008), Idaho (which switched from a primary to a caucus), and Washington (which hosted both a caucus and primary in 2008)).

In terms of the raw number of votes, the 2012 GOP primary was the second largest on record in Wisconsin behind only 1980 when the three-way battle between Reagan, Bush, and Anderson brought 907,853 individuals out to vote that April.

Tuesday’s huge turnout in Wisconsin is contrasted by Maryland, which saw a decrease from 2008 of more than 82,000 voters (-25.8 percent).

Wisconsin Republican Presidential Primary Winners and Margin of Victory, 1912-2012

Year	Winner	%	2nd	%	MoV
2012	Mitt Romney	44.1	Rick Santorum	36.9	7.2
2008	John McCain	54.7	Mike Huckabee	36.9	17.8
2004	George W. Bush	99.1	(Unopposed)	0.0	99.1
2000	George W. Bush	69.2	John McCain	18.1	51.1
1996	Bob Dole	52.3	Pat Buchanan	33.8	18.5
1992	George H.W. Bush	75.6	Pat Buchanan	16.3	59.3
1988	George H.W. Bush	82.2	Bob Dole	7.9	74.3
1984	Ronald Reagan	95.2	(Unopposed)	0.0	95.2
1980	Ronald Reagan	40.2	George H.W. Bush	30.4	9.8
1976	Gerald Ford	55.2	Ronald Reagan	44.3	10.9
1972	Richard Nixon	96.9	Pete McCloskey	1.3	95.6
1968	Richard Nixon	79.7	Ronald Reagan	10.4	69.3
1964	John Byrnes	100.0	(Unopposed)	0.0	100.0
1960	Richard Nixon	100.0	(Unopposed)	0.0	100.0
1956	Dwight Eisenhower	95.9	John Chapple	4.1	91.8
1952	Robert Taft	40.6	Earl Warren	33.8	6.8
1948	Harold Stassen	39.4	Douglas MacArthur	34.0	5.4
1944	Douglas MacArthur	74.3	Thomas Dewey	15.3	59.0
1940	Thomas Dewey	72.6	Arthur Vanderberg	27.1	45.5
1936	William Borah	98.2	Alf Landon	1.8	96.4
1932	George Norris	94.2	Herbert Hoover	4.4	89.8
1928	George Norris	87.1	Herbert Hoover	9.5	77.6
1924	Robert La Follette	62.5	Calvin Coolidge	35.8	26.7
1920	Robert La Follette	52.8	Leonard Wood	15.0	37.8
1916	Robert La Follette	98.8	(Unopposed)	0.0	98.8
1912	Robert La Follette	73.2	William H. Taft	26.1	47.1
	Average	74.3		17.1	57.2

Data from Wisconsin Government Accountability Board and Wisconsin Blue Book. Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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