Which State Will Be the Most Electoral Vote Rich to Flip in 2012?

Since 1832, at least one state with 10+ Electoral College votes has flipped from the previous cycle in 43 of 45 elections; the largest flipped state in that cycle has voted for the winner 36 times

The aftermath of the 2010 U.S. Census found Barack Obama six electoral votes shy of his 2008 tally based on the states he won heading into the newly apportioned 2012 electoral map.

However, as most presidential contests are not decided by a few Electoral College votes, the president’s campaign is, of course, most concerned about losing one (or more) of the elector-rich battleground states he carried in 2008 – namely Florida and Ohio.

While there are certainly theoretical mathematical scenarios in which a Republican challenger could win the White House without taking back Florida or Ohio, the likelihood for Obama is that if one of them switches to the GOP, other battleground states will follow suit.

And what is the likelihood of seeing at least one elector-rich state swing back to the Republican Party in 2012?

A Smart Politics study of every presidential election since 1832 finds that at least one state with 10 or more Electoral College votes has changed its presidential party preference from the previous election in 43 out of 45 cycles, and at least one state with 20 or more votes has switched in 35 cycles.

Only the Elections of 1908 (Nebraska, 8 votes) and 2004 (Iowa, 7 votes) saw each of the nation’s states with 10 or more electoral votes hold serve in back-to-back cycles.

Given its very large population and competitive partisan makeup for generations, New York has by far led the way on this dimension – owning the largest cycle-to-cycle switch in the presidential vote for 22 of these 45 elections.

New York was the most elector-rich state to flip for a five-cycle stretch from 1840-1856, for a record eight consecutive cycle stretch from 1868-1896, and for a three-cycle stretch from 1972-1980: in 1840, 1844, 1848, 1852, 1856, 1868, 1872, 1876, 1880, 1884, 1888, 1892, 1896, 1912, 1916, 1932, 1948, 1960, 1972, 1976, 1980, and 1988.

New York is followed by:

· Ohio with three elections: 1836, 1920, 1944
· California with three: 1964, 1968, 1992
· Florida with three: 1996, 2000, 2008
· Kentucky with three: 1832, 1900, 1924
· Missouri with three: 1864, 1904, 1956
· Pennsylvania with two: 1860, 1936
· Iowa with one: 2004
· Georgia with one: 1984
· Illinois with one: 1952
· Michigan with one: 1940
· Nebraska with one: 1908
· Texas with one: 1928

(Note: In 1864, Kentucky tied Missouri with the largest electoral vote flip at 11 by voting Democratic after voting Constitutional Union in 1860. In 1924, Wisconsin tied Kentucky with the largest electoral vote flip at 13 by voting Progressive after voting Republican in 1920. The above tallies denote flips between major parties).

But is there any significance to which political party enjoys the fruits of the biggest electoral vote switch in a given cycle?

Since 1832, the winning presidential candidate has netted the largest ‘flipped state’ 71 percent of the time (32 cycles), including 12 of the last 13 cycles since 1960.

The only instances in which the most elector rich state that switched parties went to the losing presidential candidate were 1832 (Kentucky), 1836 (Ohio), 1856 (New York), 1868 (New York), 1876 (New York), 1900 (Kentucky), 1908 (Nebraska), 1916 (New York), 1940 (Michigan), 1944 (Ohio), 1948 (New York), 1956 (Missouri), and 1988 (New York).

When the electoral vote of the largest flipped state was 25 or higher, the winning presidential candidate carried the state in 25 of 32 cycles (78 percent of the time).

With four of the top five most populous states virtual locks for Democratic (California, New York, Illinois) and Republican (Texas) presidential candidates in 2012, the ‘big flip’ is therefore most likely to come from Florida or Ohio, with an outside shot at Pennsylvania, Michigan, or North Carolina.

This presumes, of course, that President Obama does not build on his landslide victory from 2008.

States with the Largest Electoral Vote Swing from the Previous Presidential Election Cycle, 1832-2008

Year	State	Votes	From	To	Winner
2008	Florida	27	GOP	Democrat	Yes
2004	Iowa	7	Democrat	GOP	Yes
2000	Florida	25	Democrat	GOP	Yes
1996	Florida	25	GOP	Democrat	Yes
1992	California	54	GOP	Democrat	Yes
1988	New York	36	GOP	Democrat	No
1984	Georgia	12	Democrat	GOP	Yes
1980	New York	41	Democrat	GOP	Yes
1976	New York	41	GOP	Democrat	Yes
1972	New York	41	Democrat	GOP	Yes
1968	California	40	Democrat	GOP	Yes
1964	California	40	GOP	Democrat	Yes
1960	New York	45	GOP	Democrat	Yes
1956	Missouri	13	GOP	Democrat	No
1952	Illinois	27	Democrat	GOP	Yes
1948	New York	47	Democrat	GOP	No
1944	Ohio	25	Democrat	GOP	No
1940	Michigan	19	Democrat	GOP	No
1936	Pennsylvania	36	GOP	Democrat	Yes
1932	New York	47	GOP	Democrat	Yes
1928	Texas	20	Democrat	GOP	Yes
1924**	Kentucky	13	Democrat	GOP	Yes
1920	Ohio	24	Democrat	GOP	Yes
1916	New York	45	Democrat	GOP	No
1912	New York	45	GOP	Democrat	Yes
1908	Nebraska	8	GOP	Democrat	No
1904	Missouri	18	Democrat	GOP	Yes
1900	Kentucky	13	GOP	Democrat	No
1896	New York	36	Democrat	GOP	Yes
1892	New York	36	GOP	Democrat	Yes
1888	New York	36	Democrat	GOP	Yes
1884	New York	36	GOP	Democrat	Yes
1880	New York	35	Democrat	GOP	Yes
1876	New York	35	GOP	Democrat	Yes
1872	New York	35	Democrat	GOP	No
1868	New York	33	GOP	Democrat	No
1864*	Missouri	11	Democrat	GOP	Yes
1860	Pennsylvania	27	Democrat	GOP	Yes
1856	New York	35	Democrat	GOP	No
1852	New York	35	Whig	Democrat	Yes
1848	New York	36	Democrat	Whig	Yes
1844	New York	36	Whig	Democrat	Yes
1840	New York	42	Democrat	Whig	Yes
1836	Ohio	21	Democrat	Whig	No
1832	Kentucky	15	Democrat	Nat. Rep.	No

* In 1864, Kentucky tied Missouri with the largest electoral vote flip at 11 by voting Democratic after voting Constitutional Union in 1860. ** In 1924, Wisconsin tied Kentucky with the largest electoral vote flip at 13 by voting Progressive after voting Republican in 1920. Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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