Smart Politics Projections: Wisconsin State Senate

Republicans to take back control of Senate during GOP wave in Wisconsin

Current partisan split
Democrats: 18
Republicans: 15

On the ballot
Total Democratic seats: 10
Total Republican seats: 7

Incumbents
Democratic incumbents: 8
Open Democratic seats: 2
Republican incumbents: 5
Open Republican seats: 2

Unchallenged seats
No Democrat on the ballot: 2
No Republican on the ballot: 0

Analysis
Seventeen of the Wisconsin Senate’s 33 seats are on the ballot in 2010 (the odd-numbered districts), with Democrats and Republicans splitting the 16 seats not up for grabs at 8 each. Republicans only need a net gain of two seats to win the chamber. The prized targets for the Republicans this cycle are the four Democratic incumbents sitting in seats the GOP lost in 2006 (SD 5, SD 21, SD 23, SD 31). Democrats won those four seats by a combined 14.6 points during the last cycle.

Projection
Partisan shift: GOP +3
Partisan control: GOP takes control

Follow Smart Politics on Twitter.