Younger Candidate More than Twice as Likely to Win Minnesota Gubernatorial Elections

A study of Minnesota’s 64 gubernatorial races finds younger candidate victorious more than 70 percent of the time

(This report is the sixth installment in Smart Politics’ ‘Pathway to the Governor’s Mansion’ Series. Past reports analyzed the political experience, geographic background, ethnic background, age (part 1), and astrological signs of successful gubernatorial candidates in Minnesota history).

Should Representative Marty Seifert end up with the GOP slot on the gubernatorial ballot next fall, he may very well be the favorite to win the election – and not necessarily due to his policy positions.

A Smart Politics analysis of the more than five dozen Minnesota gubernatorial elections since statehood finds that the younger candidate has defeated the older candidate in more than 70 percent of the contests.

Seifert, at age 37, is the youngest major party candidate in the 2010 gubernatorial field thus far. The other youngest candidates in the race are DFLers Margaret Anderson Kelliher (41) and Paul Thissen (43) and Republican Pat Anderson (43).

The success rate of younger gubernatorial candidates in the general election began to take hold in the late 1860s, and has been quite pronounced since the beginning of the 20th Century.

· Since 1926, the younger gubernatorial candidate has won 23 of 30 gubernatorial contests in Minnesota, or a success rate of 77 percent.

· Since 1904, the younger candidate has won 33 of 41 contests, or an 80 percent rate of victory.

(Note: the age of the second place challenger in one of Minnesota’s 64 gubernatorial general elections could not be determined: Democrat E.O. Hamblin in 1861. This election was therefore excluded from the analyses in this report).

In these 33 such races since 1904, the younger (victorious) candidate was 9.5 years younger than the second place finisher on average. Since 1857, the winning gubernatorial candidate has been 4.2 years younger than the second place finisher on average.

The state’s more recent political history has also borne out this general trend of the triumph of youth, with the younger candidate winning in 4 of the last 5 general election matchups:

· Tim Pawlenty was born 12 years later than Mike Hatch and 11 years later than Peter Hutchinson.
· Pawlenty was born 16 years after Roger Moe and 9 years after Tim Penny.
· Jesse Ventura was born 9 years after Skip Humphrey and 2 years after Norm Coleman.
· And while Arne Carlson was 22 years older than his 1994 challenger John Marty, he was 6 years younger than his 1990 opponent, incumbent Rudy Perpich.

Earlier in the 20th Century, during a remarkable stretch from 1904 through 1942, the younger candidate defeated the older candidate in 19 out of 20 Minnesota gubernatorial races – even though many of these more ‘seasoned’ candidates were political heavyweights:

· The younger Theodore Christianson defeated former U.S. Senator Magnus Johnson in 1926.
· Christianson also defeated the older former U.S. Representative (and future U.S. Senator) Ernest Lundeen in 1928.
· At just north of 30 years old, Harold Stassen defeated former Governor Elmer Benson in 1938.
· Stassen then defeated former Governor Hjalmer Peterson in 1940 and 1942 (Peterson was 17 years his elder).

The largest age difference in a general election gubernatorial matchup in the Gopher State was in 1918 when Republican J.A.A. Burnquist defeated Democrat David H. Evans, who was 27 years older.

That record would nearly be bested should the 2010 general election matchup end up with Representative Seifert, at age 37, on the Republican side of the ticket, and former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton, at age 62, on the DFL side – a difference of 25 years.

Age Differential of Minnesota Gubernatorial Election Winners and Losers, 1857-2006

Year	Winner	Born	Loser	Born	Diff.
1857	Henry Sibley	1811	Alexander Ramsey	1815	4
1859	Alexander Ramsey	1815	George L. Becker	1829	14
1861	Alexander Ramsey	1815	E.O. Hamblin	N/A	N/A
1863	Stephen Miller	1816	Henry T. Welles	1821	5
1865	William Marshall	1825	Henry M. Rice	1816	-9
1867	William Marshall	1825	Charles E. Flandrau	1828	3
1869	Horace Austin	1831	George L. Otis	1829	-2
1871	Horace Austin	1831	Winthrop Young	1817	-14
1873	Cushman Davis	1838	Ara Barton	1824	-14
1875	John Pillsbury	1827	David L. Buell	1831	4
1877	John Pillsbury	1827	William L. Banning	1814	-13
1879	John Pillsbury	1827	Edmund Rice	1819	-8
1881	Lucius Hubbard	1836	Richard W. Johnson	1827	-9
1883	Lucius Hubbard	1836	Adolph Biermann	1842	6
1886	Andrew McGill	1840	Albert Ames	1842	2
1888	William Merriam	1849	Eugene M. Wilson	1833	-16
1890	William Merriam	1849	Thomas Wilson	1827	-22
1892	Knute Nelson	1842	Daniel M. Lawler	1859	17
1894	Knute Nelson	1842	Sidney M. Owen	1838	-4
1896	David Clough	1846	John Lind	1854	8
1898	John Lind	1854	William H. Eustis	1845	-9
1900	Samuel Van Sant	1844	John Lind	1854	10
1902	Samuel Van Sant	1844	Leonard A. Rosing	1861	17
1904	John Johnson	1861	Robert C. Dunn	1855	-6
1906	John Johnson	1861	A.L. Cole	1848	-13
1908	John Johnson	1861	Jacob F. Jacobson	1849	-12
1910	Adolph Eberhart	1870	James Gray	1862	-8
1912	Adolph Eberhart	1870	Peter M. Ringdahl	1861	-9
1914	Winfield Hammond	1863	William E. Lee	1852	-11
1916	J.A.A. Burnquist	1879	Thomas P. Dwyer	1855	-24
1918	J.A.A. Burnquist	1879	David H. Evans	1852	-27
1920	J.A.O. Preus	1883	Henrik Shipstead	1881	-2
1922	J.A.O. Preus	1883	Magnus Johnson	1871	-12
1924	Theodore Christianson	1883	Floyd Olson	1891	8
1926	Theodore Christianson	1883	Magnus Johnson	1871	-12
1928	Theodore Christianson	1883	Ernest Lundeen	1878	-5
1930	Floyd Olson	1891	Raymond P. Chase	1880	-11
1932	Floyd Olson	1891	Earle Brown	1879	-12
1934	Floyd Olson	1891	Martin A. Nelson	1889	-2
1936	Elmer Benson	1895	Martin A. Nelson	1889	-6
1938	Harold Stassen	1907	Elmer Benson	1895	-12
1940	Harold Stassen	1907	Hjalmer Petersen	1890	-17
1942	Harold Stassen	1907	Hjalmer Petersen	1890	-17
1944	Edward Thye	1896	Byron G. Allen	1901	5
1946	Luther Youngdahl	1896	Harold H. Barker	1889	-7
1948	Luther Youngdahl	1896	Charles L. Halsted	1894	-2
1950	Luther Youngdahl	1896	Harry H. Peterson	1890	-6
1952	C. Elmer Anderson	1912	Orville Freeman	1918	6
1954	Orville Freeman	1918	C. Elmer Anderson	1912	-6
1956	Orville Freeman	1918	Ancher Nelsen	1904	-14
1958	Orville Freeman	1918	George MacKinnon	1906	-12
1960	Elmer Andersen	1909	Orville Freeman	1918	9
1962	Karl Rolvaag	1913	Elmer Andersen	1909	-4
1966	Harold LeVander	1910	Karl Rolvaag	1913	3
1970	Wendell Anderson	1933	Douglas M. Head	1930	-3
1974	Wendell Anderson	1933	John W. Johnson	1929	-4
1978	Al Quie	1923	Rudy Perpich	1928	5
1982	Rudy Perpich	1928	Wheelock Whitney	1926	-2
1986	Rudy Perpich	1928	Carl R. Ludeman	1951	23
1990	Arne Carlson	1934	Rudy Perpich	1928	-6
1994	Arne Carlson	1934	John Marty	1956	22
1998	Jesse Ventura	1951	Norm Coleman	1949	-2
2002	Tim Pawlenty	1960	Roger D. Moe	1944	-16
2006	Tim Pawlenty	1960	Mike Hatch	1948	-12

Note: Table compiles the age of the second place finisher in the “loser” column. Notable third place candidates in 2006 (Peter Hutchinson), 2002 (Tim Penny), 1998 (Skip Humphrey), 1942 (John D. Sullivan), 1938 (Thomas Gallagher), 1932 & 1934 (John E. Regan), 1930 (Edward Indrehus), 1924 (Carlos Avery), 1922 (Edward Indrehus), 1920 (L.C. Hodgson), 1894 (George L. Becker), and 1890 (Sidney M. Owen) were all older than the victorious candidate in that respective election. The age of notable third place candidates in 1918 (Fred E. Wheaton), 1926 (Alfred Jacques), 1928 (Andrew Nelson), and 1940 (Edward Murphy) could not be established. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

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