North Carolina Analysis of Multi-State Voters Likely Sets Up Familiar Drama
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Stop me, stop me
Stop me if you think that you’ve
Heard this one before
Stop me, stop me
Stop me if you think that you’ve
Heard this one before
Nothing’s changed
– The Smiths
Yesterday, the North Carolina Board of Elections released a report that suggests that hundreds of voters registered and voted in multiple states in 2012. The News-Observer has more:
North Carolina elections officials told state lawmakers Wednesday that they have identified hundreds, and potentially thousands, of voters who may have cast ballots in two states in the 2012 general election …
The numbers of potential voter fraud cases revealed Wednesday were gleaned from a cross-checking of voter records among 28 states. It was the first time North Carolina participated in the cross-check process, which was required under sweeping new election laws passed last year by the Republican-controlled General Assembly.
Specifically, the check found 765 voters whose first and last names, dates of birth and last four digits of their Social Security numbers matched exactly with a voter registered in another state and who voted in both states in 2012. The results also identified 35,750 voters with matching names and dates of birth who voted in North Carolina and another state that year.
These kinds of cross-checks are happening with increasing frequency – and were explicitly endorsed by the Presidential Commission on Election Administration in its recent report. The ability for states and jurisdictions to share registration information is a good thing that can not only prevent double voting but also permit a greater portability of voter registration in an ever-more mobile society.
Unfortunately, the study has also set off a (sadly, now-familiar) wild reaction by lawmakers who see the figures as proof of rampant fraud in the electoral process:
Republican legislators on an elections oversight committee quickly reacted, calling the number of possible voter fraud cases “shocking,” “outrageous” and “proof positive” that fraud is occurring in North Carolina elections. They called on elections officials to investigate all possible fraud and refer potential criminal cases for prosecution. Double voting is a felony.
“That is outrageous. That is criminal. That is wrong, and it shouldn’t be allowed to go any further without substantial investigations from our local district attorneys who are the ones charged with enforcing these laws,” said Sen. Thom Goolsby, a Wilmington Republican.
Of course, as we’ve seen in other states, these initially high numbers don’t always pan out upon further inspection, a point made by other voices in North Carolina, including the Board itself:
Kim Strach, executive director of the State Board of Elections, said her office is investigating the results of the cross-check and knows the identities of the potential offenders. Where there’s evidence that a crime was committed, it will be referred to prosecutors, she said. “We have to ensure that is what happened, and it wasn’t an error on someone’s part,” Strach said.
Strach said the cases could be voter fraud or mistakes made at polling places by precinct officials who attributed votes to the wrong people. Many voters remain on voter rolls after they move to other states, die or otherwise stop voting, and Strach said that increases the potential for mistakes. She stressed the importance of accurate voter rolls. “Even if it’s not voter fraud, a precinct official shouldn’t have the opportunity to choose this person and attribute a vote to them,” Strach said.
Bob Hall of the liberal watchdog group Democracy North Carolina said the public shouldn’t jump to conclusions until more details about the numbers are known. Hall said election investigators have repeatedly found poll worker errors and other explanations in cases that first appeared to be dead people voting or residents of other states casting ballots in North Carolina.
“There may be cases of fraud, but the true scale and conspiracy involved need to be examined more closely before those with political agendas claim they’ve proven guilt beyond a reasonable doubt,” Hall said.
He added that duplicate names don’t automatically signal fraud. “I know there is more than one Bob Hall with my birth date who lives among the 28 states researched,” he said. “For all we know, there may be 35,000 legitimate name and birthday matches.”
Until then, the challenge in North Carolina will be to keep policymakers from overreacting – which, in my experience, is a tall order. There’s no guarantee that the North Carolina story will follow the multi-step pattern of:
- big initial number
- partisan outrage
- further investigation
- much smaller actual number
- partisan indifference …
… but in my experience, that’s the way to bet.
Stop me if you think you’ve heard this one before.